UpFront Ideas! the Important Issues to watch in 2026
Flat employment is the MOST important
In which Jay and I discuss what’s REALLY going to drive workers comp this year - sorry there aren’t 20(!!!) things…we only worry about the big things!
First…employment, always good to start with the biggest driver of workers comp because premiums are based on…payroll. Which is, of course, based on…employment.
Which, frankly, isn’t looking good.
The net - unemployment has moved up over the last year - and is projected to rise in 2026. Source here.
Since February of last year, the economy added less than 400,000 jobs. The only word to describe this is abysmal. (Good numbers are around 135,000 new jobs EVERY MONTH)
But wait…it gets worse. Remember work comp claims are more frequent and more costly in manufacturing, the extractive industries and construction…where we’ve lost more than a million jobs - and all the payroll from those jobs.
Over that time America LOST more than a million goods-producing jobs.
Since February 2025 there have been ZERO new construction jobs, while we LOST oil and gas exploration AND mining and logging jobs.
What does this mean for you?
Flat employment = declining WC premiums and claims…due to rates decreasing in almost every state (except CA and NV) and frequency continuing its structural decline.
Very interesting. Love to see this macro perspective, especially with the relevant graphs!